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 knowledge-based model


Value-Enriched Population Synthesis: Integrating a Motivational Layer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, computational improvements have allowed for more nuanced, data-driven and geographically explicit agent-based simulations. So far, simulations have struggled to adequately represent the attributes that motivate the actions of the agents. In fact, existing population synthesis frameworks generate agent profiles limited to socio-demographic attributes. In this paper, we introduce a novel value-enriched population synthesis framework that integrates a motivational layer with the traditional individual and household socio-demographic layers. Our research highlights the significance of extending the profile of agents in synthetic populations by incorporating data on values, ideologies, opinions and vital priorities, which motivate the agents' behaviour. This motivational layer can help us develop a more nuanced decision-making mechanism for the agents in social simulation settings. Our methodology integrates microdata and macrodata within different Bayesian network structures. This contribution allows to generate synthetic populations with integrated value systems that preserve the inherent socio-demographic distributions of the real population in any specific region.


A Knowledge-Based Model of Geometry Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a model of the development of geometric reasoning in children that explicitly involves learning. The model uses a neural network that is initialized with an understanding of geometry similar to that of second-grade children. Through the presentation of a series of examples, the model is shown to develop an understanding of geometry similar to that of fifth-grade children who were trained using similar materials.


Combining Machine Learning with Knowledge-Based Modeling for Scalable Forecasting and Subgrid-Scale Closure of Large, Complex, Spatiotemporal Systems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the commonly encountered situation (e.g., in weather forecasting) where the goal is to predict the time evolution of a large, spatiotemporally chaotic dynamical system when we have access to both time series data of previous system states and an imperfect model of the full system dynamics. Specifically, we attempt to utilize machine learning as the essential tool for integrating the use of past data into predictions. In order to facilitate scalability to the common scenario of interest where the spatiotemporally chaotic system is very large and complex, we propose combining two approaches:(i) a parallel machine learning prediction scheme; and (ii) a hybrid technique, for a composite prediction system composed of a knowledge-based component and a machine-learning-based component. We demonstrate that not only can this method combining (i) and (ii) be scaled to give excellent performance for very large systems, but also that the length of time series data needed to train our multiple, parallel machine learning components is dramatically less than that necessary without parallelization. Furthermore, considering cases where computational realization of the knowledge-based component does not resolve subgrid-scale processes, our scheme is able to use training data to incorporate the effect of the unresolved short-scale dynamics upon the resolved longer-scale dynamics ("subgrid-scale closure").


Hybrid Forecasting of Chaotic Processes: Using Machine Learning in Conjunction with a Knowledge-Based Model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A model-based approach to forecasting chaotic dynamical systems utilizes knowledge of the physical processes governing the dynamics to build an approximate mathematical model of the system. In contrast, machine learning techniques have demonstrated promising results for forecasting chaotic systems purely from past time series measurements of system state variables (training data), without prior knowledge of the system dynamics. The motivation for this paper is the potential of machine learning for filling in the gaps in our underlying mechanistic knowledge that cause widely-used knowledge-based models to be inaccurate. Thus we here propose a general method that leverages the advantages of these two approaches by combining a knowledge-based model and a machine learning technique to build a hybrid forecasting scheme. Potential applications for such an approach are numerous (e.g., improving weather forecasting). We demonstrate and test the utility of this approach using a particular illustrative version of a machine learning known as reservoir computing, and we apply the resulting hybrid forecaster to a low-dimensional chaotic system, as well as to a high-dimensional spatiotemporal chaotic system. These tests yield extremely promising results in that our hybrid technique is able to accurately predict for a much longer period of time than either its machine-learning component or its model-based component alone.


866

AI Magazine

James Peters, coauthor of "A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk," is an assistant professor in the Department of Accounting, College of Business Administration, University of Oregon. Hans Berliner, author of the Hitech Computer Chess report, is a senior scientist in the Department of Computer Science, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213. R. Peter Bonasso, author of "An Assessment of What AI Can Do for Battle Management--A Report of the First AAAI Workshop on AI Applications to Battle Management" is the department head of the Artificial Intelligence Technical Center in The MITRE Corporation, Washington 01 Operations division, 7525 Colshire Drive, Mclean, VA 22102. His research interests include commonsense reasoning and qualitative processes with a view toward applications to military systems. Vasant Dhar, coauthor of "A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk," is an associate professor in the Department of Information Systems, New York University.


A Knowledge-Based Model of Geometry Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a model of the development of geometric reasoning in children that explicitly involves learning. The model uses a neural network that is initialized with an understanding of geometry similar to that of second-grade children. Through the presentation of a series of examples, the model is shown to develop an understanding of geometry similar to that of fifth-grade children who were trained using similar materials.


A Knowledge-Based Model of Geometry Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a model of the development of geometric reasoning in children that explicitly involves learning. The model uses a neural network that is initialized with an understanding of geometry similar to that of second-grade children. Through the presentation of a series of examples, the model is shown to develop an understanding of geometry similar to that of fifth-grade children who were trained using similar materials.


A Knowledge-Based Model of Geometry Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a model of the development of geometric reasoning in children that explicitly involves learning. The model uses a neural network that is initialized with an understanding of geometry similar to that of second-grade children. Through the presentation of a series of examples, the model is shown to develop an understanding of geometry similar to that of fifth-grade children who were trained using similar materials.


Contributors

AI Magazine

James Peters, coauthor of "A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk," is an assistant professor in the Department of Accounting, College of Business Administration, University of Oregon. Glenn D. Rennels coauthor of "Prose Generation from Expert Systems: An Applied Computational Linguistics Thomas Arcidiacono, the author of the review of An Artificial Intelligence Approach, " is a research affiliate in Approach to Legal Reasoning, is affiliated with the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, the Medical Information Sciences Program, the New York Institute of Technology, Sunburst Center 203, Central Edwina L. Rissland, author of "Artificial Intelligence and Legal Reasoning: R. Peter Bonasso, author of "An Hermann Kaindl, author of "Minimaxing: A Discussion of the Field and Assessment of What AI Can Do for Theory and Practice", is a Gardner's Book," is an associate professor Battle Management--A Report of the software engineer in the position of of Computer and Information First AAAI Workshop on AI Applications "Gruppenleiter" at Siemens AG Science at the University of Massachusetts to Battle Management" is the osterreich, Program and System Engineering at Amherst and lecturer on department head of the Artificial Since 1984, he has been a lecturer law at the Harvard Law School. Operations division, 7525 Colshire research interests include planning Drive, Mclean, VA 22102. Vasant Dhar, coauthor of "A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk," is Model of Audit Risk," is Peat Marwick Professor of Accounting, Kenneth D. Forbus is an assistant professor Perry Miller, coauthor of "Prose Generation of computer science at the University from Expert Systems: An Call toU-free 800-521-3044 Or mail inquiry to: University Microfilms International. Forbus's research interests Program, Yale University include qualitative reasoning, inference School of Medicine, 333 Cedar Street, engine design, analogical reasoning P.O.